US shoppers spent a record $257.8 billion online between November 1 and December 31, 2025, according to data Adobe Analytics released on January 7, 2026 — but growth slowed to 6.8 percent from 8.7 percent the year before. A bigger number on a slower rate is not a contradiction; it is a snapshot of a consumer who kept buying while getting more selective. Mobile purchases crossed 56 percent of online revenue for the first time, and Adobe noted rising use of AI shopping tools. If you feel like you hunted harder for deals this season, the data agrees with you.
What does slower growth actually mean for shoppers?
Growth rates matter more than totals, and the deceleration is the real news. Retailers planned for a season they expected to be promotional, discounting started earlier, and shoppers still held back relative to last year's pace. When spending grows slower than the volume of promotions thrown at it, retailers enter January with inventory they expected to sell. That is the condition that produces genuine clearance — not the "up to 70% off" signage you already ignored in December, but the quiet second-round markdowns on winter goods through late January and February.
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Why the mobile and AI numbers are worth your attention
Two mechanics inside the report shape what you see on screen. First, with mobile taking a record 56.4 percent of online revenue, retailers design their stores — and their checkout flows — for a phone first, which is where one-tap payment options and pre-applied discounts quietly reduce friction. If you want to compare prices before buying, a desktop browser is still the better tool. Second, Adobe flagged growing use of generative AI tools during shopping. Recommendation engines have always steered carts; the difference now is that the steering is conversational, and it favors products that are easy to summarize, not necessarily products that are a good deal.
Did discounts drive the record, or did prices?
Adobe's own holiday forecast, issued in October 2025, had projected heavy discounting through the season, and the final numbers landed above that forecast. But a record total says little about unit prices: more shoppers, more mobile orders, and more single-day events above $4 billion — which happened on 25 separate days — can push a total up even when average prices barely move. Treat the headline as a measure of participation, not savings. Your own receipt is the only number that actually tracks what you paid.
What to do with this in mid-January
You are now in the window the data points toward: retailers with slow holiday books mark down winter inventory without much advertising. Coats, boots, bedding and gift-adjacent categories get their real cuts between mid-January and mid-February, not during the season itself. If an item you wanted in November is still sitting on a virtual shelf, its price is more likely to fall than to recover — and this year's slower growth increases those odds.
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